University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics estimates for Pennsylvania for 2025: $111 million drop in soy exports, $50 million drop in corn exports, $22 million drop in beef exports, $20 million drop in wheat exports

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National Corn Growers and American Soybean Association trade war analysis shows massive soy and corn export reductions, gains by Brazil and Argentina, and a reduction in soy and corn prices 

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COLUMBUS, OH – 10/15/24 – Two new analyses of former President Trump’s proposed trade policies show the enormous impacts to Pennsylvania farmers, particularly soy and corn producers, two of the state’s largest export commodities. Former President Trump has proposed a 10% across the board tariff on other countries and a 60% tariff on China. The University of Illinois analysis looks at the impacts of those tariffs and the impacts of retaliatory tariffs on farmers. The National Corn Growers (NCGA) and American Soybeans Association (ASA) analysis also looks at the likely impacts of China responding “to U.S. punitive tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs on corn, soybeans, and soybean products.”

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“These new studies literally show that Trump’s tariffs will put Pennsylvania farmers out of business,” said Chris Gibbs, an Ohio corn and soybean farmer and President of Rural Voices USA. “Exports are vital for Pennsylvania farmers and they cannot absorb the sharp fall in exports and prices these studies foreshadow. The Trump plan not only bankrupts Pennsylvania farmers, it gives South American farmers a leg up into the critical export markets farmers rely on.”

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Key findings of the two studies for Pennsylvania and nationally: 

• Pennsylvania farmers would see soy exports fall by $111 million; corn exports fall by $50 million; wheat exports drop by $20 million; and beef exports drop by $22 million. More
• Pennsylvania farm prices and profits would also be driven down according to the report: “A substantial decline in exports, as projected under these scenarios, would lead to an oversupply in domestic markets, driving down farm prices and squeezing profit margins for farmers. This price pressure could have cascading effects, reducing farm income, increasing financial stress, and potentially leading to farm closures, particularly among smaller operations.” More
• Nationally, the new NCGA and ACA estimates that “soybean exports to China fall between 14 and 16 million metric tons annually, an average decline of 51.8% from baseline levels expected for those years. U.S. corn exports to China fall about 2.2 million metric tons annually, an average decline of 84.3% from the baseline expectation.” More
• The NCGA and ASA analysis also shows that Brazil and Argentina would be the chief beneficiaries of a new trade war. The finds that U.S. soybean prices would be “$0.60 per bushel below the baseline, on average, over the forecast horizon. The price rises for farmers in Brazil and Argentina, capturing more than $0.75 per bushel over the baseline price on average.”