University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics estimates for Michigan for 2025: $397 million drop in soy exports, $93 million drop in corn exports, $20 million drop in beef exports, $50 million drop in wheat exports

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National Corn Growers and American Soybean Association trade war analysis shows massive soy and corn export reductions, gains by Brazil and Argentina, and a reduction in soy and corn prices 

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WASHINGTON DC – Two new analyses of Trump’s proposed trade policies show the enormous impacts to Michigan farmers, particularly soy and corn producers, two of the state’s largest export commodities. Former President Trump has proposed a 10% across the board tariff on other countries and a 60% tariff on China. The University of Illinois analysis looks at the impacts of those tariffs and the impacts of retaliatory tariffs on farmers. The National Corn Growers and American Soybeans Association analysis also looks at the likely impacts of China responding “to U.S. punitive tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs on corn, soybeans, and soybean products.”

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Key findings of the two studies for Michigan and nationally: 

• Michigan farmers would see soy exports fall by $397 million; corn exports fall by $93 million; wheat exports drop by $50 million; and beef exports drop by $20 million. More
• Michigan farm prices and profits would also be driven down according to the report: “A substantial decline in exports, as projected under these scenarios, would lead to an oversupply in domestic markets, driving down farm prices and squeezing profit margins for farmers. This price pressure could have cascading effects, reducing farm income, increasing financial stress, and potentially leading to farm closures, particularly among smaller operations.” More